Resilience, Risk & Reinvention – John Lavery joins Stelios for the Ceres Podcast
Ceres Podcast Episode #221 – Fish, Chips & Change: A Belfast Restaurateur’s Journey Through Recession and Reinvention
Ceres Blog • by Emily • 11 Jul 2025
In the latest episode of The Ceres Podcast, host Stelios Theocharous sits down with John Lavery, co-owner of Fish City in Belfast, for a powerful, reflective conversation about resilience, entrepreneurship, and redefining fish and chips for a modern audience. This isn’t just a story about food — it’s a story about surviving economic upheaval, choosing integrity over shortcuts, and building something meaningful out of necessity.
Whether you’re a fish and chip shop owner, a hospitality professional, or just someone who appreciates grit and good business sense, this episode has plenty to offer.
The Business Journey: From Meat Markets to Fish Markets
John Lavery’s path into hospitality wasn’t straightforward. He began in the meat business, moved into wholesale, and then into property development — just in time for the 2007–2008 crash to hit. That crash left a deep mark, personally and professionally. As he tells it, “it took 10 years to unravel myself out of that position,” but those hard lessons gave him a durable, entrepreneurial mindset.
This raw honesty sets the tone for the episode. Lavery doesn’t shy away from the toll these experiences took — and Stelios meets him with empathy and understanding. It’s not your average industry chat. It’s about weathering storms and rebuilding with purpose.
Fish City: Building a Brand With Depth
Fish City wasn’t born out of a lifelong dream; it was a strategic move. Lavery and his wife saw an opportunity in fish and chips: cash over the counter, recession resistance, and brand potential. They started in a rural petrol forecourt and moved to Belfast city centre — a risky pivot that ultimately paid off.
What makes Fish City stand out is its commitment to being more than a chippy. Lavery describes their approach as seafood-first, resisting the temptation to overload the menu with popular meat or pizza options just to chase volume. Their Belfast location is thriving, but it’s not without challenge — especially when public perception still pegs them as a “chippy” despite offering a full seafood experience.
“We would be probably the most genuine seafood, fish and chip restaurant in Northern Ireland,” Lavery asserts.
The Bigger Picture: Sustainability, Strategy & Changing Tides
One of the most striking parts of the episode is the nuanced discussion about sustainability. Lavery doesn’t just wear his MSC accreditation as a badge — he sees environmental stewardship as a foundational pillar. But he’s also pragmatic.
He and Stelios dig into the hard truth: customers may say they care about sustainability, but the data shows most don’t engage with it. Still, Lavery believes the key is subtle trust-building — making diners feel good about choosing a restaurant that “does things right,” even if they can’t explain why.
They also touch on shifting consumer behaviour, market repositioning, and the challenges of pricing in a high-inflation world. Lavery is candid about the difficulty of changing portion sizes, raising prices, and balancing margins while stayingrelevant and accessible.
A Candid Take on the Fish & Chip Industry
The episode also explores broader industry challenges:
Why Northern Irish shops offer broader menus than mainland UK
The public’s confused expectations on portion sizes
The dangers of outdated messaging around value and price
Why younger generations aren’t rejecting fish and chips — they’re just not being engaged in the right way
Lavery’s involvement with the NFFF (National Federation of Fish Friers) shines here too. He explains the rationale behind the industry-standard portion poster — a misunderstood but well-intentioned campaign aimed at resetting public expectations and helping operators protect margins.
“It’s a public education poster, not a point-of-sale poster,” Lavery clarifies.
Final Reflections: VAT, Value & Vision
In the closing moments, the conversation turns toward government policy, VAT, and the crushing weight of regulation on small operators. Lavery is measured but firm in his stance: reform is needed, and so is unity.
“The current crisis is also an opportunity,” he says. “We need to rethink, reset, and speak with one voice — suppliers, operators, everyone.”
Why You Should Listen
Episode 221 of The Ceres Podcast is rich in honesty, depth, and practical insight. It’s not just for fish and chip shop owners — it’s for anyone running a business under pressure and trying to make smart, sustainable decisions for the future.
If you want to hear from someone who’s walked through fire and come out stronger, this conversation is well worth your time.
About the Ceres Podcast: Ceres | Pure Food Innovation founder Stelios Theocharous launched the Ceres Podcast in 2018. The podcast is centred on insightful conversations with the movers and shakers of the food and hospitality industry, from chefs and fish and chip shop owners to food producers and hoteliers.
Transcription
Stelios: Welcome back to the Ceros Podcast. I'm Stelios, your host, and this is episode 221. Today, I'm joined by John Lavery, the driving force behind Fish City in Belfast. John's career has zigzagged through his original career as a butcher, and then into the wholesale meat trade, property business, and now hospitality. All while navigating foot and mouth, the 2008 crash, obviously COVID, and each obstacle has become a fuel for growth. And Fish City now stands tall as a must-visit seafood spot in Belfast and Northern Ireland. So get ready for a masterclass in resilience, reinvention, and a community-first business. Quick note on this recording, right at the end, John was making a final point and we were then going to wrap up and say bye, but we lost connection. So the conversation ends a bit abruptly, but don't panic. That's just the way things go. John will be back for a round two. I think he had so many great points that I'd love to go down on those tangents. So we're not sure when, but I reckon we'll get another one done.
This episode is brought to you by the Heavy Duty range of Ceres Cleaning Products. Our heavy duty cleaning line just got a power up. Meet the heavy duty descaler. It blitzes stubborn limescale fast. It's safe on stainless steel and delicate parts. It's plant-based, odourless, antimicrobial, no fumes, no mess. Pick up yours at Ceres.shop with free next day mainland UK delivery. And if you're listening to this from somewhere else, like Northern Ireland, we also deliver there too. Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland and the Isles. While you're on the site, give our Ceres calculators a whirl. Pop in your costs, get instant menu prices, margins, portion guides, no spreadsheets, no guesswork. Try them for free at Ceres.shop/calculators. For more tips and offers, competitions, you name it, jump on our mailing list. The links will be in the show notes. Now into our chat with John Lavery. Thank you for watching! John, welcome to the podcast.
John: Hello Stelios, thank you very much for inviting me on.
Stelios: You know, it's absolutely great to have you on. You know, we've had a lot of discussion prior to this, and we see each other at the odd event. I've been to your restaurant a couple of times when I'm in Belfast. And, you know, I'm just grateful for your time today, mate. And I think we've got lots of things to talk about.
John: Let's hope so, ya, I think we do.
Stelios: I think you've got an interesting setup because you're not a traditional chippy, and also a traditional chippy in Belfast means something else to what a traditional chippy is in on mainland UK obviously. But, you know, more so, you know, I wanted to get into something quite meaty first, actually. You had a business in property development and you sort of went through the 2007 financial crash. How did that mentally gear you up for what we're into today, fast forward, although nearly 20 years? Because I think a lot of people see Covid as their pivotal moment. Many people before Covid saw maybe the 2007-2008 crash as their moment. How do you see the difference between both? What does that teach you in business going through tough times?
John: Well, probably to answer that question, we need to go back a bit further than the property game. I started off my career in meat business, initially retail and then into wholesale, and developed that. We at that time were supplying restaurants, hotels, contractors throughout Northern Ireland, and we saw the Celtic Tiger in southern Ireland was flying at the time, and we felt that there was opportunity to step into that market and to that end we built an EU licensed processing unit to do that. And then along came Foot & Mouth, BSE, borders and markets closed, the consumption of red meats drastically went down, certainly restaurants, the market that we were in all adapted, it was moved to different proteins etc. So that was to say the least a challenging time. So yeah, you've stopped and made me think there so I'm remembering back to that.
Stelios: So you've had quite a few headwinds then? Like how do you… must make you quite thick-skinned.
John: Or suicidal (laughs). Well, what I have learned, and you're right, that's the property crash especially, you know, those things all, all sorts of stuff go through your mind, you know, you certainly can put it in your future, where you are, how you're going to survive, that's personally never mind business-wise, but what I've learnt is that no matter how bad things get, there's always the other side. And that journey can be difficult, can be very difficult, for example, the property market, that took 10 years for me to unravel myself out of that position. So, but in that, you do, you find a strength in the knowledge that there is, you know, there's the other side, there's a way through. And you know, I think that's what I've learned. I suppose, you've obviously been in the meat industry and being on property and now in the fish and chip/restaurant business, that I have an ability, and I realise an ability that, you know, I can change tact, it doesn't, simply because I've done something all my life doesn't mean to say that I can't do anything else.
Stelios: You've chosen sort of three tough industries. Meat is not, you know, it's not for the faint-hearted at the best of times, you know, I made a meat trader once at Billingsgate Market and he was angry and stressed and overweight and angry and stressed and to find out that he was like 41, he looked like he was 63, and, you know, he was always up against it and mentally he just felt like completely up against it, and then so that's not an easy job obviously property– highly leveraged positions, and, you know, stressful and then now obviously seafood and fish and chips and retail and restaurant…
John: Well, the meat business was a day-to-day stress thing and certainly when you're wholesaling, the margins are so thin that you've really got to be on top of everything, but that was a lesson that today I understand from a financial point of view– you really need to be on top of your game. You need to look at those finances, do your costings, look at all those areas, I learnt that lesson, and that I suppose the meat game has more than anything has taught me that, and that has helped improve the current business today.
Stelios: It’s a bit unorthodox to start with the struggles in the business but I’ll tell you why I sort of went there, it's because I don't think a truly maybe it's a bit maybe this is a bit of a blanket stereotype, but I don't think many businesspeople, including myself, learn much when things are easy. And that's why I think maybe I'm sort of like maybe I'm casting you as a wise figure but I think like it's almost like for someone who's been through a thing or two like you start to learn a way, you know, it doesn't mean you learn everything but you probably will like navigate your way through. I was talking to a friend yesterday about another friend of mine who's only 25 but he's got a couple of fish and chip shops but he's ahead of his years mentally and business like because of Covid. Covid– it put a lot of stress and pressure under businesspeople, especially at a young age that it's sort of put years on them, gives them experience, and I think there is something to be said like I know you reflectively look back and say oh you know, ‘Well, it could have been worse, we got through it, we made it to the other side,’ but in the moment though that can't be nice.
John: No, for sure. I certainly remember the property crash, and there was huge sums of money involved, et cetera. And I'm aware and know of a few people that really they couldn't take the stress of it anymore. And unfortunately, when it went to the dark side, it got worse. And that's why I said there earlier that there's always a way through. And that's important that people know that and are aware of that.
Stelios: One thing I noticed about Northern Ireland, I spent a bit of time there, people in Belfast, what makes them, and you might know the answer to this, highly resilient people and also very quick to sort of just say, you know what, I'll go it alone. I'll go and do it on my own. I'll be self-employed. You know, they don't mind being employed, but at the same time, they also are not afraid of being self-employed and building a thing on their own. What makes the Northern Irish people quite, I don't know, I know this is, we've moved away slightly from fish and chips, but we'll get back there, but I'm just trying to build a picture of… because I do see that like when I'm over there. The people I've dealt with seem to be very entrepreneurial. They're not afraid of taking on that risk.
John: There are numerous answers to that. Certainly one is that the political position in Northern Ireland is one reason but maybe more than that is that historically we didn't have the industrial industries here in Northern Ireland that would have been in the UK so there wasn't the jobs provided to people that were trying to feed themselves and feed a family so in some ways no choice or that influenced maybe the mindset. That's a short answer.
Stelios: It's a good, it makes sense, it's a good one, yeah.
John: There's lots of other reasons. It's a strange… that's something that you have observed. I don't, and I don't know many people that would say that people in Northern Ireland are any more entrepreneurial than anyone else.
Stelios: Maybe it's the people I've met, maybe. I probably do meet more businesspeople so that would make sense.
John: I can see the logic. You know, you made me stop and think about it, and I think what you said, there is some truth.
Stelios: I like to make people think it's one of my specialities. Pisses the wife off, though. So fast forward me to Fish City– where did the inspiration come from?
John: Well, as you mentioned earlier, we were in the property market, that crash happened, we first saw that maybe mid-latter part of 2007, and it was in Ireland, it was much... it was a bigger crash than in other places in the UK. To give you some perspective on the thing, whenever I bought something at that time, I always looked at it and said, look, if I take a 25% hit here, can I survive? And 25% is that substantial enough figure. But I ended up taking 90% hits, as in many others. So that was a disaster. Initially, you thought, this is a glitch, it will rebound in six months. That went to nine months, went to a year, went to situations only worsening. So we looked at our position, we haven't planned for any retirement. And we said, look, we've got to do something here or there's going to be nothing left to do anything with. So we looked at a number of different businesses and things that potentially could we get into. So the criteria at that time was that it had to be cash over-the-counter because although the banks were open, the signs were up, they weren't lending. So it had to be cash over-the-counter. Something that was as recession-proof as possible. And fish and chips wasn't the only thing, what we looked at, there weren't too many layers below that. Now that is something that I would like to come back to later. And at that time, we also looked at something that might have legs, something that we could roll out, you know, it could be bigger than what it was when it started. So, as I said, fish and chips was one of those areas that we looked at. And then we went looking for sites and we had our thoughts on what sort of a, we felt that in the fish and chip thing, that perhaps we could provide the model that we looked at was to be on garage forecourt. There was other businesses doing the same thing, and we felt that if we went in little, a little bit of a higher end, that in some locations that we could maybe do better was our initial thinking. That's clearly changed today. But that was our thought process on, on getting in, into the marketplace. A site became available on a garage forecourt, and we had some brief conversations with a fuel provider forecourt owners and one of the first questions they asked us was, do you already exist and are you on a garage forecourt? So we felt it was important to establish ourselves in a location like that. So something came up which was quite close to where we were living at the time and we felt that that was a good thing. That was where we should start and I suppose that's how the other potential businesses that fell aside. So we were in a rural location initially and we entered the awards, I think maybe a year and a half, a year and a three-quarter, of being there and we managed to win the regional takeaway award.
Stelios: That's for the Seafish awards, isn't it?
John: That was from Seafish who were running it. And so that's sort of indicated to us that we're doing something right.
Stelios: So was that a different outlet before Fish City, or was this a different outlet, or was this Fish City?
John: Oh, no, sorry, it was a garage forecourt.
Stelios: Yeah, because that's why I was confused, because obviously when I've been, there's no garage forecourt there. No, I've been to the one, yeah.
Stelios: No, yeah, it was a garage forecourt, but we knew that, as I said at the start, that something that would have legs. So we'd begun the journey of the brand building. But we realised that at some point we were going to have to move to the city. That happened sooner than we had planned or envisaged. There was issues with our landlord that we can't go into. So we found ourselves looking in the city centre and a location that we liked. So this is where we are today. We're in our ninth year, or sorry, approaching our tenth. We're very happy that at the time it wasn't so pleasant and we certainly didn't like it. But, you know, ill winds and all that were, you know, in retrospect, it was a good thing it happened.
Stelios: Yes, I guess it's one of those things you just reflect again back on and just say, well, you know, maybe things happen for a reason? But if I'm right, a lot of my limited knowledge to Belfast and the petrol forecourt scene, it seems to be one particular landlord that has quite a lot of control over a lot of them, don't they?
John: Well, things have moved on. No, no, but you’re correct in what you’re saying. You know, it’s like all the multiple others are being up by the big guys, who are opening more, so more presence then on the market.
Stelios: It's got to be a good thing, right?
John: Yeah, but there's no, little independents. And there's not only… the forecourt people that I referred to earlier are southern based. They would be bigger in the south than they would be in the north, although I don't believe that they have expanded in the north in the same way as they have…
Stelios: I see. And was the business model different at the Fish City restaurant where you're at now and where you were before?
John: Well it's a very different business but I suppose and there is recent talk of menu diversity. I'll expand on that in that in Northern Ireland, menu diversity has been happening for quite a long time. So there would be add-ons to fish and chips and you would see whether it's chicken or kebabs or some pizza or different variants on add-ons to the business. So at the time and when we were in the rural setting, yes, we did burgers and we did chicken and we did, you know, the normal things. But we were looking at our menu and going, we'll at the menu. And we had a small, we had a small sit-in at that site that maybe would have held 20 people. And what we were interested in and what we felt was, look, the sign above, the door says fish and chips. So that's what we are supposed to be experts at. That's what we are supposed to be knowledgeable at. So it makes sense that we introduce seafood as opposed to bringing in a pizza machine or going down maybe some of the other pathways. So that was, even back then, that was the direction of travel of which we wanted to go. I will say that in the country, that was a, that was a direction that was more difficult. And it was because of public perception of what we should be, you know, in a rural setting, rural as opposed to the city centre, people who may be in the city a bit more cosmopolitan, more accepting of what someone might be doing.
Stelios: I guess you've got the volume there as well, haven't you?
John: Well, yes, there's the volume, but just introducing new menu items or introducing a change to what might be perceived as being well, you’re a fish and chip shop, so we shouldn't be doing that. And that's not, if I decide that I want to have a seafood dish, that you're not an option. And we saw that whenever we first came to Belfast, that we were looked at as, ‘Oh, that’s a chippy,’ and we saw that you know, say after 7:30, that business started to die off because that wasn't how the public viewed us. After 7:30, we went to a restaurant.
Stelios: So you were never tempted to add the steakette to the menu then?
John: We have established ourselves and I would say that we would be probably the most genuine seafood, fish and chip restaurant that there is and I would go as far as to say Northern Ireland. Other seafood restaurants have it on their menus, they'll have your steaks, your pork, your chicken dishes, all of the above. People don't come to us for a steak. I've had chefs who have argued, let's put a steak on, let's put a steak on. Look, all my life and I think I've said, ‘Okay let's, let's try it, let's try it. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work, throw it away, and move on,’ but each and every time that that a chef has said that you know we'll do this, I said fine, it hasn't sold, people don't, and more because of the city situation, if somebody wants to stick uh they'll go to a steak restaurant or they'll go to, you know, there are all those options available.
Stelios: I was actually being facetious, though. You must have misheard because I said steakette. And one of the eye-openers I saw when I visited lots of shops in Belfast was the different menu options. And, you know, the menus are quite diverse in Northern Ireland, to be honest, you know, I saw pasties, which weren't pasties in pastry, you know, these were like potato cakes, mashed potato. That always baffled me. Because I remember the guy says, oh, have you never had a pasty before? I said, I'm sure I've had a pasty before. And he was like, no, you've not had a pasty before. And I'm just like, we're going around in circles here. There's me thinking Cornish pasty. Nothing like one of them. And then I saw kebabs. Because in the UK, well, I say UK because I'm thinking mainland. But mainland England, essentially, a kebab is on a spit. Whereas what I saw was shredded chicken breast that was then cooked on a griddle, which, to be fair, the finished product resembled a kebab. And then, obviously, there was steakettes. And then there was the breakfast that had, like, the soda bread and everything. And so, yeah, and the menus were quite broad. But, again, nothing I'd ever seen in the UK. In the UK, you've got pies. You've got kebabs, well, it depends where you go. If you go to Liverpool area, the Wirral. I was talking about this earlier, actually, on another podcast. If you went into a chip shop in, like, Liverpool or the Wirral area, and they didn't do Chinese food, customers' perceptions would be like, what? And it's probably the same in the Midlands if you didn't do real kebabs, you know. But you have stayed away from. And you also stayed away from chicken and, well, more meat-based products. So, you've literally thrown yourself into seafood and fish.
John: Yeah, we provide, I mean, we have a chicken burger, we have them off, chicken goujons off, they're back on because of the day time and the price point. But we provide that because whether it's a couple or a group and one or more of those people are not seafood lovers that there’s an offering.
Stelios: Absolutely. And what would you say, what's your typical customer base like? Is there a pattern or is it, you know, or is it like, well, you know, 20 to 50s or, you know, is there a pattern? Are you choosing a different, are you aiming at a certain type of clientele?
John: We'd like to see more of the 20- to 30-year-olds at the moment because they're the ones with the expendable income, but there's lots of things, and again we may touch on it later, there's lots of things happening out there in the hospitality industry which are on trend, which is attracting that demographic. Don't get me wrong, we do get them and we do get the 30+ customer base, but the reality is that fish and chips are an older generation. But they have grown up with them uh where the kids perhaps uh not so much, but they, I'm pleased to say that that we are and we do get them. The outside space is very good, and to put it on the right days that that could be busy with a definitely a younger demographic so it's a wide mix it's a wide mix, but the attracting the young demographic is, that's an industry job, and that that will…would require a coordinated effort by…
Stelios: It's one of those things I was saying to someone earlier like I, my kids absolutely love fish and chips, I've made no effort to turn that thing around or to make them love it more, I'd take them wherever, I think it's probably my in-laws and my parents have probably done more of that, you know, I think kids are very influenced by grandparents because obviously parents are busy they're always doing things and but they absolutely love it like if I said to them, ‘Do you want to go, you know, Nando's or fish and chips?’ Provided there's a good fish and chip restaurant nearby, they'll put it in the same category as Nando's or Pizza Express.
John: I completely concur. It's probably those mid-teenage years, you know, early 20s where, you know, whenever I say trends, is it cool? Is it cool to be seen somewhere? Is it cool to, you know, talk about? And perhaps it's not so cool at the moment.
Stelios: I think that does change. And I do think that, I think... I think it ebbs and flows. I think that you know someone although you do serve lots of 20s to 30s, but I do think that everything sort of ebbs and flows and changes and everyone's very I think, it's very ephemeral now, like, you know, people get put off something very quickly they've become vegan for a year and then quickly they then say no I'm a pescatarian for a year and people are trying things they're more exploratory, the good thing that fish and chips has is what's going for it. I think it's how much how wild the fish is, how you know fresh the potatoes are you know, there's something going for it there but and I guess there's different types of fish and chip shops or fish and chip restaurants or seafood restaurants that suit every budget as well, so that that's got to be a good thing.
Stelios: I completely agree with what… fish and chips have an awful lot going for us, you know, from the whole sustainability thing and what we're trying to do, and I want to push that further in my role with NFFF. People make the assumption of sustainability and environmental, where's that, the till isn't chinging because you're screaming, those things. You might be surprised, and we will, over the next number of months, be putting out more information on that. And there's finance, green finance available too, and I feel that there are a lot of people in the industry, sustainable, environmental, that's all about MSC. It's a much, much bigger picture, and there's much greater benefit to people's businesses and the environment than to individuals. Plus, you know, we talk about all the time being fellow communities, you know, what we're doing for our communities, etc. That's part of it as well, and maybe, but that's a whole lot of other stuff. Let's get back to where we were.
Stelios: I can see that you're one of the first restaurants, if not the first restaurant, to get MSC accreditation in Northern Ireland. Is that right?
John: The first restaurant on the island of Ireland.
Stelios: Oh, okay. Wow, okay. I think like one of the things that is probably a real good benefit from that point of view is saying, I think, one huge upside from at least saying we're sustainable and you know it doesn't always have to be attached to MSC but just saying that we source sustainably, etc. just the fact that you're not unsustainable that's a benefit in itself like I think that's definitely a benefit in itself just say to people we at the very least are sourcing whatever ingredients we use carefully and you and so that's got to be a plus side. hasn't it?
John: This is sort of the point that was trying to make. So there is… people, people's understanding of what uh sustainability and environmental awareness is, the reality is they don't, they don't fully understand it, they think that it's and that wouldn't be indicative of just the fish and chip industry, that on a wider scale, people do not you know they make assumptions about what it's all about. But we're talking about the younger demographic there, it's the younger demographic who are most conscious about the environment and climate change et cetera et cetera so it's, you know, looking at the big picture, the long finger, is that's it's important that we reach out to those people. The other big thing which is current is the price of fish and the quota levels and perhaps if maybe we'd made a… We had a bit more attention to the research and the evidence a number of years back then we would be in the situation that we're in today.
Stelios: Well I guess what a friend of mine always says, I can't, I think, I can't remember what prime minister it was but someone said to him, ‘Why did such-and-such happen?’ and he goes, ‘Events, dear boy, events,’ and I think that even if we did pay attention or someone paid attention political events take center stage don't they and I think it is one of those things and maybe it's an overcorrection if we look at Norway's Barents Sea case at the moment maybe that's an overcorrection and maybe in two year’s time that has resolved itself because obviously they need about three years four years for the whole thing, I think, we're about two years in so you know another two and we should sort of be back to normal, fingers crossed the Russia situation gets fixed, and then the main supplier of fish is freed up not that I'm that's not taking a side it's just to say that hopefully for both parties we can hurry up and get that thing put to bed, but I do think you know one of the things about consumers, I think they all talk a good game, I think they all say, ‘Oh, I'm buying from a sustainable business,’ and you know but I if you ever just go on to like a McDonald's website, there are pages and pages of ‘We buy our potatoes from a locally sourced whatever, we buy our such-and0such from,’ and I'm, I almost guarantee…
John: The term greenwashing comes to mind.
Stelios: Yeah, well, many would say that, and many would say that, and but, many would also disagree, I guess, if we talk about McDonald's in particular but I guess I'm not here to defend them, I'm just trying to give some context. What I'm moreso was just trying to say was I bet you the majority of their customer base have never clicked on that page that says where is our product from or sustainability and I do wonder like if anybody listening to this has those pages on their website, go to Google and just look at the, you know, go to your Google Web Webmaster tools or analytics tools and just look at how many times those pages have been clicked and I bet you it's hardly ever, because I think that people talk a good game, they virtue signal, they want to show their friends or their peers that they care, the truth is I don't think they do care. You know like I had a friend a few years ago that said I will never drink Coca-Cola again, never, what they do to the water in India, it's abhorrent, and then she comes around my house, and what is she drinking? Coca-Cola. And you think because nobody's looking you say in a group of people you're at a restaurant I refuse to eat this, I refuse to drink that, and then really in their own little world, they do and to give you an example, we have a sustainability page we have a page on our website all the FAQs nobody ever clicks on it. And we still populate It, we still edit it often and add the information, but I sometimes do wonder, ‘Why am I doing this when nobody clicks on these things?’
John: Aye, some of what was said there I don't disagree, and it's a very hard thing to quantify you know: how important is that to our business? We're public facing, so who… I would, I would, and it's very difficult again to measure, but I would say there would be a small percentage that that that make a decision we're going to fish city because of their ethos. I think that what is more likely is that on a subconscious level or if it's a ‘we'll do this’ or ‘we'll do that’ and the that whole ethos then is maybe the tipping that somebody, ‘look, we'll go here’ but is it is it the is it the main criteria? No. And under the… one of the things that the public are not, they're not interested in getting into the nitty-gritty of all of this stuff, but what they are interested in is that they're being taken care of. That's, you know, ‘I don't know what to do, but I know they do something that's good for everybody.’
Stelios: I’d agree with that. I think the majority of people that are coming through your door, I'd guess, is the average person who loves what you do food-wise. That comes first. That is at the top of their priority. I'd say just behind that would be they agree with your pricing structure. They're happy to pay the fee, whatever it is. And then somewhere along the lines, they're happily surprised that actually they're not harming the environment. But I don't think those things would be the other way around. I think they're just pleasantly surprised that, oh…
John: I'm not disagreeing with that. You know, it's the whole hospitality and the experience here at Fish City, it's about the whole package. So if I can give somebody a warm, fuzzy feeling because they feel good about a decision or what they're doing in whatever level, then that's a good thing, that improves the whole experience.
Stelios: So how do you, like when you stand back and look at Fish City, do you see it as a fish and chip restaurant, or do you see it as a seafood restaurant that does fish and chips? How do you balance the two?
John: That's a more difficult thing, and that's a challenge all the time for us. The fish and chip element is hugely important. It's our USP, it's what we were acknowledged for, it's how the business has developed. And it's a substantial amount: during the day, it will amount to 70%+ of sales, inthe evening time that drops down a bit, it could drop down to 40%, 50%. But that's a rough guide. There'll be times where that isn't the case. It's higher than that. So it's hugely important. We know that we do that hugely well. Yeah, no, look, it's also a barrier. It's a barrier because again back to people perception as a chippy.
Stelios: You know, it's really interesting you say that because there's a real smart guy in the industry, a lot of people don't know of him, those that do know he's a genuine like he's probably yeah, he's just a trailblazer, a man of his time, and his name's Andrew Costantino and he had a group of shops called, group of fish and chip shops called George's Tradition, and then he opened a group called George's Kitchen, and he essentially removed the word ‘fish and chips’ out of the branding and he said back then, ‘I feel like the word fish and chips in the title of the business is actually a limiting factor,’ and he goes, ‘We tested it– George's Fish and Chip Kitchen,’ and he goes, ‘Everyone just straight away just thought of it as, you know, there's a limit, there's a ceiling price,’ and he said by removing that and then having lots of other menu items because it was a broader menu, not just fish, it was all sorts, he said they managed to get the price up on fish and chips because they wouldn't be able to do that otherwise. So yeah, it's interesting that you say that that the word fish and chips feels limiting.
John: Yeah, no, it's, there's absolutely.
Stelios: Is that limiting by us, though, in our own minds, or is it a consumer issue?
John: Well, in our own minds, it's both. We still, to this day, get people who, you know, ‘Oh, I've passed you a number of times,’ or ‘Over the years I've never been in,’ and all of you that are in for the first time that know of us and ‘I didn't realize that you did this or that or the other.’ So a solution perhaps is that just take fish and chips sign off, and we have seafood, and people that would come in, they would not be surprised to find fish and chips on the menu. But we do fish and chips very well. It's the brand, the association with fish and chips and the brand is important to us. It's important to me personally because without the fish and chips, there wouldn't have been the seafood. And I don't believe that fish and chips are going to disappear. I think, I mean, and there's been lots of discussion about fish and chips, it's finished, it's on the way out, it's, nobody's interested.
Stelios: Where are you hearing that? Where do you think that...
John: Well, you see it in social media, you see it in news stories, and you hear it within the industry. I think, and we're going through very significant change, and I can see where people might say that in a flippant sort of a way, without really thinking it through, or that footfalls down for most places. So, a downturn in business, you know, nobody's interested anymore, I think that there's much greater factors at play resulting in the current climate and the current situation than people falling out of love for the product. So, no, I think there's great change, as I said, happening. I think there's a market repositioning, that's me personally.
Stelios: What sort of market repositioning are you seeing, or what do we think could, let's say, you know, we're not gonna get everything right, but in your mind, what are you sort of seeing?
John: Okay, well earlier I spoke about what the criteria was for us getting into the fish and chip business, and I said that one of the things was that there's very few layers below, you know, fish and chip offering and some other food to go. That's all changed. That's changed from the point of view that the ready-made meal sector there's that's usually out there. People and let them and the reality is that you know people would have had takeaway two three times a week. They can no longer afford to do that. And the ready-made meal sector has quadrupled…
Stelios: When we say ‘ready-made meal’ sector, just for the listeners, the benefit of the listeners, when we say ‘ready-meal meal’ sector, do you mean the foods that are ready in a supermarket like noodles and pies, or do we mean the likes of Gregg’s?
John: No, what I mean is go into supermarkets and there's a dinner or there's a chicken.
Stelios: Okay, yeah, so hot food? Or just any, or just any?
John: Well, you can stick it in a microwave…
Stelios: I see, so we are talking about the traditional ready meal then in that case, yeah, okay.
John: Yeah, so that market has grown hugely. Then you've got your pop-ups and your food halls and that offering is also out there now. So the person who was, you know, on a Monday they got a Chinese, on a Tuesday they threw on something, cooked a bit of mince. Wednesday another pizza or something, Friday they had a fish, they went down to the chippy, had their fish suppers, they can't do that anymore so now it's, you know, on a Friday, it's, you know, that's a luxury so you know this Friday they'll order fish suppers for the family, next week it'll be Chinese, the following week it'll be a pizza or something else, so it's just you know that customer you saw every week you might be seeing now for a fortnight or once a month. And that's affordability. So whether we like it or we don't, fish and chips is now moving into the luxury market.
Stelios: Do you think though that so just thinking about this a bit broadly you mentioned a few minutes ago that maybe people eat out less now, but do you think they eat – just as a way of thinking about differently flipping on his head – do you think they eat out more but the barriers have shifted? Years ago people if we go to, when I was growing up – the 90s, it wasn't, we didn't go to restaurants that often and then as I got a bit older, we went to more restaurants and it became a regular thing and now to say to somebody, ‘Oh we're going to a restaurant,’ it means nothing, it is just like going to the newsagents. It has… years ago though in the 80s and 90s if you said we're going to a restaurant it meant, oh, you're doing all right, you're treating yourself. You know, if you did it regularly, you're probably doing even better than most. Now it's just become, okay, what are you telling me for? You're just going to a restaurant. And I do think also, if we lower the barrier even more, you have got, you know, all of this out of home food. You've got all your Gregg’s. You've got, I found out, I was with a friend of mine the other day and he supplies numerous businesses, massive businesses with pies. And he said, you'd be shocked that how busy or how much volume the BP petrol station goes through in terms of like sausage rolls, pies, and whatever it is, croissants they've got in there. It's immense business. I mean, immense. And I'm thinking to myself, who's eating that? Because I go to the petrol station all the time. And I think I've never bought one of those things. And obviously I'm not that person, but they're good quality. What I'm saying is that everyone's eating out, and the term ‘eating out’ has almost, has been watered down… to ‘catching a Gregg’s’ or whatever it is on their way to wherever… All the way up to, I'm going to a Michelin style restaurant, which is obviously a bit posher than that. But the definition has widened, is what I'm trying to get at.
John: Eating out, well, I'm not too sure that I agree with your definition of explaining that. I wouldn't classify eating out, getting a takeaway or getting a Gregg’s is not eating out.
Stelios: But it's eating out of home, isn't it?
John: Yes, yes. And, again, it's, you know, people require sustenance.
Stelios: Absolutely.
John: So, the old term, oh, people need to eat, you know, that's a great business.
Stelios: I remember that.
John: You know, people do need it. But it's where they go for the sustenance. So I would classify sustenance, eating out is as a social, going to a restaurant is about the experience as well.
Stelios: I would agree with that. Going to a restaurant is, yeah.
John: Yeah, and Covid and work, you know, working from home, there are all sorts of factors which have reduced the number of times people go out, whether it's, you know, on a Friday, calling into the pub on their way, you know, Friday's. Thursday's the new Friday. So there's been a massive change to how people interact with each other, the social communication that they need with each other and why they might go to a particular restaurant and the food, the quality of the food is hugely important, but it's the overall experience which probably takes people back to certain places time and time again.
Stelios: Absolutely. So do you think that, right, if we simply say then, are you saying that there is a difference or there isn't a difference between eating at a restaurant and classifying that as sustenance, although we see the bigger picture because it's more than just sustenance, or just getting a ready meal from the supermarket?
John: I see a huge difference but look if we look at the younger demographic and the stats are showing that they're drinking less, they're not visiting pubs, they're not even meeting up together in groups because they can do that all from home electronically.
Stelios: Yeah.
John: And so when people gather together, the food is the centre point, and that younger generation are not doing it the same way that you are.
Stelios: I don't know the full statistics and again I'm not here to defend them, but if we just look at restaurants like the other day we went out to a restaurant I think it was nothing fancy we just took the boys to Nando's, everything was busy full of young people. The Five Guys was busy, the Pizza Express was busy, the Wagamamas was busy, we had to wait 30 minutes for a table. At Nando's like it's anecdotal obviously, it's not you know I haven't just told you there you know a broad a broader view of the economic situation.
John: I have to ask the question. You've just rolled off a number of things, okay, and those operations all have made their own story and it appeals to that generational thing and I don't know where you were or what day you were there, but I can assure you that it's not the case that those cases are filled every night of the week.
Stelios: No, I'd imagine they're not. This was a peak time. It was a Sunday afternoon. So, you know, it wasn't, you know, like a Wednesday night, let's say.
John: But they're brand-, the kids are very brand-orientated.
Stelios: But like I said, my kids are really happy going to a fish and chip restaurant, they're happy going to a seafood restaurant, like if there was nearby we'd go like they'd be there like so but I was just impressed that how they seem to be pulling through and they've had increases of their own they're not beating us on price you know they've had major increases too, so I just wonder what is you know, what is it that we're seeing here? Because you know it seems like independents seem to be struggling. well that's the story coming from independents, and then the national chains just seems to be plugging away, and is it that they're not moaning, or is it that you know they're just getting on with it? I know talking to a McDonald’s franchisee that they're taking a few hits on profit so they can keep turnover coming in, obviously they can swallow some of that because they're huge, but it's just interesting because you know what others are doing because this will all be playing into government statistics. And if government statistics are just looking at yeah, I'm convinced this is on purpose, so we've been trying to get some data off the government and we've emailed every single government department and they just keep moving us from one to the other and it seems like a lot of the definitions on food businesses or hospitality seem very broad so it will say restaurants or takeaway but they've got nothing for fish and chips and they've got nothing for Chinese takeaway and they've got nothing so they've got whether maybe they're doing behind the scenes but they're not sharing it, they're just basically saying we've got an umbrella term and that's it and I do wonder if that's because then when they look at the data it then says oh hospitality which includes McDonald’s, Burger King, KFC, fish and chip shops, Chinese takeaways, and such-and-such, it then ends up trending two percent up instead of nine percent down, you know, for a specific game.
John: And the other factor, hospitality also includes hotel.
Stelios: Yeah, tourism, yeah.
John: And the hotels certainly here on the island of Ireland, the accommodation rates have been, you know, we've seen huge increases, so it tells us the hotel sector… and they have diversified into spas and all sorts of add-ons et cetera and that stuff distorts figures as well. The chains– look, the problem is, for the fish and chip industry, is that any chains or any multiple businesses out there are relatively small. It's full of independents. So there isn't marketing people, there isn't something centralised that's sending out messages. For those chains, that's all controlled, to a very large extent, from head offices, etc., and what the stories that are being told. And as independents, we have a much more difficult path to tread. And the messaging, our messaging is fragmented and misunderstood, and I have said before that the old messaging of the fish and chip industry, and some of it is still very much relevant, but, you know, cheap huge portions– it's just a mix a mixture of messages that were relevant but I don't believe I don't believe or are relevant anymore or as relevant, some of them all very much so…
Stelios: That was never a message or a promotion from anybody within the industry. That's something that crept in probably a lot of industries while inflation was pretty stagnant, I guess, wasn't it?
John: Over… over what…?
Stelios: Well if you think, let's say, for example, how much inflation would we have had from 2010 to 2018? It probably would have been pretty on the low side, you know, one percent-ish maybe a year, like, and I'm just guessing so, I'm not an economist, I'm just guessing, but you know if you look back on that period you wouldn't have seen huge increases in fish prices and huge increases of potato prices so people sort of knew mentally that they could hedge a price for a while because gas was stable for that period of time, electric was stable, wages were pretty stable, and then post-Covid, post-Brexit, you know, I think Brexit's important on wages, I think, and then everything afterwards things have just shot up, you know, and we've had to then, the industry's had to catch up, and I think that probably has slowed down the larger portions because obviously people are now a lot more aware of the situation, but I guess that's something that people have to do internally within their own business individually, I think they got themselves there on their own their own, they probably have to get themselves out of it on their own, don't they?
John: Well, talking about a point there, look, the messaging has, whether where it's come from or what, but in general, it's where the industry is today. It's found itself there through decades. It's not in the last 10 years. It's, you know, it's what… look, people used to, you know, would have competed with, they looked at the guy up the road and they went, you know, what I'm gonna sell my fish and chips at 20p or a shilling cheaper and you know what I'm going to give a bigger portion and that's how I'm going to win business, and that that's been happening for decades. And so much so now that from a public point of view, there's no idea of what's going from one place to another, of what size of portion they're going to get. But they have an expectation!
Stelios: Do you think that's a fish and chip problem? And I suspect it might be because I don't see that with Chinese takeaways, like the tray always seems the same size at the Chinese takeaway, like it's almost like they all agree this is the size, you know, where they don't agree on price, but they agree on you know the tray. And same with like getting the takeaway from an Indian restaurant, which I rarely do, but the size is the size, you know, it's this.
John: Generally speaking, a pizza box is a standard.
Stelios: Yeah. Nine-inch, 12-inch, 15-inch. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah.
John: Yeah, no, I think it's very much a fish and chip problem and issue. I must say we as operators have put ourselves in that position. What has happened now with the fish prices is that, whereas that may not have been a problem or an issue for many before, now it is. You know, fish is at such a price that giving out a large portion is... is it profitable?
Stelios: You are literally giving money away.
John: Quite right. So, but people that have built their whole business model on that will find it very difficult to reverse out of that. You know, if they've built their business on supplying a 10-, 12-ounce portion of fish, how do they get that back into the business?
Stelios: For clarity, I've always thought that, I don't have an issue with the portion size, I have an issue with the price that the portion size is at. I think that if, I know many shops that will do what they call like an extra-large or a Moby Dick or whatever you want to call it, and they charge accordingly for it. You know, if it's a 15-ounce fish, it's seen as a challenge product, you know, like people do it.
John: Stelios, I don't have a problem with you know, you're doing a large, you're doing whatever it is, whatever size it is. But we're talking about, you know, the regular portion size of many shops then putting them out at ten ounces, 12 ounces…
Stelios: Yeah, so we're sort of on the same page then. It's not so much the weight, it's the weight and the price.
John: Which brings me on to, obviously, look, I'm the regional representative for the NFFF for Northern Ireland. And the pace of change has been just, it's nearly impossible to keep up with.
Stelios: The pace of change of what?
John: Everything, with regard to the cost of ingredients, with government policy, energy, there isn't… whether it's equipment, whether it's maintenance, just everything has increased beyond recognition. And historically, you know. you had mentioned to come back earlier, so previous to Covid, you know, maybe you had an ingredient change and that was expensive for a month or two but other products then you know that maybe they have come down slightly in price, your product mix, so it wasn't a big deal or that if something was going up in price that shop would have had several months of which to adjust and you know get a few caps on here there or that the ingredient would have come back in line and not so much damage done. And as we know, lots, lots of people are maybe sitting down at the year's end or looking at the bank balance to see how well they're doing or not doing, as opposed to sitting down and doing costings and looking at margins and GPs etc. and so with small changes that's not as noticeable you know you've got your 12 months you're looking at it oh well I'm down 1% or whatever it is, not a huge big deal, I must get my prices up for next year. But the pace at which things have been going, very quickly, if you're not on the money and your price is incorrect very quickly, now you can run into a lot of trouble very, very soon. So there's lots of headwinds. So with fish, for example, you either price it accordingly to get the margin that you need. Which invariably, today, means putting your prices up. Nobody wants to put their prices up. It's tough out there. You want to keep whatever business that you have. So the other way of doing it is to reduce your portion size. So there's a bit of both going on. But if you've built your business on a 10-, 12-ounce portion of fish, how do you come in line with, say, for example, the industry standard, which for a regular fish is 170 grams, which is six ounces, I think. So how do you move from that 10-, 12-ounce portion of fish to a 10-, 12-ounce portion of fish down to the industry standard? I would think that that would be hugely difficult to do. So back to, with being a regional manager, that's communicating with our members and with the suppliers and looking at the industry and where we are today, and everybody has their concerns. So we decided to have two separate meetings because what we didn't want was operators coming in and pointing the finger at suppliers, it's all your fault, you're charging me this and that and the other, and you need to reduce your prices and all of that. We wanted the meetings to be positive. You know, what can we do for ourselves? And back to the NFFF doesn't have this huge budget work and do a TV ad campaign, put stuff in the national press, do spend hundreds or tens of thousands of pounds in messaging the public. But we can, as an industry collectively, and I'm including suppliers, we can do a lot for ourselves. So one of the things that was discussed, and this was broadly how these conversations went, both with the operators and suppliers. And the industry and how operators are doing is important to suppliers. Because if they're making a profit, then they have money to invest in their business. They can buy a piece of equipment. They can, you know, obviously, Stelios, you have a number of products which we use ourselves, the pan cleaner, etc. That's, you know, I do that maintenance and I'll pay the money to do that maintenance, all of those things. So it's important that the suppliers also support in whatever way that they can because they're supporting themselves. So fish consumption is down, because when I say fish consumption, in the industry, because there's affordability etc., people are not paying the same number of visits as I said earlier to any of the food-to-go whether it's Chinese, pizza, fish and chips, they're not visiting as often and so in order to meet rising costs, you you, as I said earlier, you've got to either raise prices, reduce portion size, or increase turnover. And turnover increased turnover is very difficult in this current climate, and reduce your pricing you've got to just you've got to increase with a turnover by X percent just to stand still, so that's a much more difficult thing to do in this environment, but one of the meetings and one of the things and those who've heard of things, some of the things that were discussed at those meetings with the operators, and the plan, so what we've done is we produced a poster which there was a lot of work done a number of years back whereby it gives the industry standard for portion size: that’s small, regular and large. And so the NFFF produced a poster and was sent it out to the members, and this is a great opportunity for me to explain the thinking behind that poster. It's not a point of sale poster; it's a public education poster. So the public, when a member of the public goes into McDonald’s, they know what a regular portion of chips are going to be, they don't, it's not a surprise they know anywhere in the country, anywhere in Europe, it's the same thing. For our industry it's hot luck! So the poster is there, and it's the industry standard. So a small fish is 100 grams, a regular fish is 170 grams, and a large fish is 220 to 250, and it also gives the angst weight. So imagine that a member of the public walks into my shop, and there's nothing else to do whilst they're waiting on their takeaway, there's nothing else to do but look around the shop. and there's a poster on the wall and it's saying small, regular, large, so we're educating the public on what the industry standard is. So tomorrow they're in Edinburgh, they see the exact same poster with the exact same information next day in Manchester, London, wherever it is, but imagine if every fish and chip operation in the UK had that poster on the wall. So it educates the public as to what the industry standard is. Now, I am not saying, nor is anybody else saying, that that's what you should do. If you have built your business on a 10-ounce portion, and you want to continue to serve that portion, so be it. You can use it as a promotional tool by turning around and saying to your customer, you know, that's the industry standard there. I'm actually giving you a larger portion. You know what? I'm only charging you X pounds. And the shop that has built its business on a 12-ounce portion or 10-ounce portion, that perhaps they should, you know, without changing the price, you know, if that's priced, perhaps they could advertise that as, that's our large fish. That's what you got last week. That's what you got the week before. That's what you're going to get next week. But we've introduced a regular-sized fish. And do you know what? You'll pay £2 less for it. There's your choice. And that's an educational, it's a public educational thing, that gradually we may be able to then establish that this is the industry standard.
Stelios: Do you think that was made clear at the beginning when it came out? Because I think many were confused about that, the intention of it.
John: No, it wasn't. It wasn't as clear as I would have liked it to have been, and there, I’ll just be frank there, there was a piece to go out on the website etc. in conjunction with it, well unfortunately it's coincided with the launch of the Awards and so there's been you know a lot of the resources etc. have been moved aside to get that launch going etc. but it will happen, it will.
Stelios: When you say that, you mean like a blog or something was meant to go with it?
John: Well, a blog and a piece and a more thorough explanation of what and how it should be used, and the opportunities of… As I said, we had a regional meeting here in Northern Ireland, so everybody in that room understood what the intention and how it would be used and under it and there's the plans to have another regional meeting and there'll be more of a thorough explanation of how it should be used. It's more, I think, it's more difficult to do on it, you know, how do you explain all that in a blog, and there were questions raised with the images that were used on the poster. Some felt that, you know, it should have been of battered fish, but what we looked at there was so, we do a poster, it goes out through the country, but I batter my fish, and the visual image of my fish is different to what's on the poster.
Stelios: In terms of visuals terms, I don't think you'll ever please everybody. I think, like, you just get into that anyway, you know, you're battered…
John: It's what sets and resonates with the public, not, there is, you know, operators are looking at the poster, looking at that thing going, that's not…
Stelios: How would you deem this project a success? Like what for you, what does that look like? What does success look like for this project?
John: Well, initially, and there's a chip poster going out as well, so the success of that, in my view, would be that obviously it's going out to the members first. The intention is that it goes out to the wider industry. And the people that can help with that are the suppliers and the companies that have the reps that are out there day and daily talking to people, also explaining the use of the poster and why that's there. Success to me would be that every shop or the biggest majority of them have those posters displayed somewhere in their shop because it's an edge. It's a public education. It's not educating the operators.
Stelios: Would, if you don't mind me asking, was this project your baby?
John: Well....
Stelios: No, no, no, I'm trying to not, that's not a negative actually. Why I say that is because you seem really invested in it. So would it be better rather than an article, someone like you, because it seems like you're invested in it into making sure that this is successful, maybe do a little two-minute video to actually say like, cause I was talking, I did a podcast earlier and we were talking about how they feel like what's really helping them introduce new species of fish is video. And I do wonder actually, like, I'm just applying that logic to this logic, like rather than an adjoining, you're saying how difficult it can be. People don't read articles as much as they used to and they do, but you know, a two-minute video with an article. Oh, if you, if you don't understand what we're saying in this article, click this video and there's you just running through it with some bullet points, because I feel like if you're going to do, again, this isn't a negative, it's just an observation. If you're going, if you're going to do the potato one next, but you haven't done the fish one properly, then there's sort of, it's not going to help. Is it?
John: No. And it's one of the reasons why whenever we talked about doing this, I saw there's been an opportunity of trying to explain what the poster was around. But Stelios, I have to say, a very good idea– a two-minute… whether it's a blog or Youtube, I don't know, tech-wise, I'm not the man to speak to. We're very fortunate in the position that we've been able to afford a social media marketing guy and I'm of the age where tech is just confusing and I just go to people and say look I need this done or that done or I'd like to do blah blah blah but I take on board and it's one of the things that the NFFF is taht we’ve got to listen to people's opinions and people's expertise etc. on perhaps… we should do this, but again, you know, it's, I'll say this, that the NFFF has, the people that are on the board are, it's a voluntary thing, everybody's running their own businesses, with the current circumstances, climate, is that, I'm including myself, board members have to pay more attention to their business than perhaps they did two or three years ago, so time, energy, resources are a problem, and it's one of the things whereby, as I said earlier, with suppliers that, you know. if suppliers have some resources or can put some time aside or whatever it is to help drive some of these things through, that's good for us, it's good for the industry, and it helps speed things along. As I said earlier, that the awards have, some of the stuff that I wanted to do or that's been, if you like, maybe deprioritized or a little or the resources are just not there because other people are busy so it's reaching out, and if it's suppliers and the people like you know that like yourselves and the other guys that see that this has been this this is beneficial to the industry perhaps we should put the shoulder to, you know, the wall or whatever it is and give a helping hand by whatever now. And I’ve also spoken to a couple of fish suppliers, and they might have been a wee bit, oh what you're advocating that people should sell smaller portions well that then means then that I'm selling less fish, but when I turned around and I said, yeah but you know you need your customers to be profitable…
Stelios: Well, in fairness, the fish supplier doesn't need anybody to do anything. They just need people to buy fish. So if I'm looking at the motivation of someone like, I don't know, I'm just thinking, Smales, for argument's sake. I don't think they come to Northern Ireland anyway, but I'm sure they supply there, but not directly. They don't care. Like, you know, I talk to potato suppliers all day long. They're not bothered that someone gives a 40-ounce chips over a 10-ounce chips. If anything, they want them to do a 40-ounce chips. You know, so I think you, I think I'm always a big fan of looking at people's motivations and looking at the outcomes you know you know a turkey is not going to vote for Christmas and a chicken's not going to vote for KFC, just like a fish supplier isn't going to advocate people doing less product that they want to sell more product they want to one way or another if they're supplying four cases of fish to a shop they don't want that to go down they want that you know so I think we've got to look at strategic ways.
John: Well, the alternative people stop selling fish, you know people have taken cod off…
Stelios: Not in great numbers. Yeah, not in great numbers, John, not in great numbers. People talk a good game, but I've only seen three or four shops take cod off, and within three or four weeks, customers are screaming at them to bring it back. And actually that isn't a good strategy, I think the problem is the focus needs to be on teaching people how to calculate margins and profits and understanding what that fish is costing them, how much they're selling it for, how much is left behind after that, and so on. Then once they know that the penny drops, I think telling them the from the other way around though probably isn't the best way it's just my opinion.
John: It's telling them both ways, Stelios, because, you know, there isn't anybody out there that's in business that doesn't know or understand that, you know, one and one needs to make two. Whether or not they do…
Stelios: Well you'd be surprised! You know, like, you know, I was listening to, I saw a video earlier of Richard Branson and you know a very successful billionaire and he was saying up until 10 years ago he didn't even know what net profit was and you think like I you know I struggle with some of those terms and he's a billionaire like and you think and you know I saw some of the comments and they're like oh you must be stupid you think wow I'd like to be as stupid as him, like so I think like if you know, I think we can assume a lot, we can assume that everybody knows all their costs, we can assume that everybody knows their back contribution, if you know and you know I speak to many people that say I’ve got a surprise that bill the fact that it was a surprise means that they weren't expecting it, which means they probably didn't have the calculation down and that's not mocking them, that's just saying that we assume a lot of things when we're in business.
John: Look, look, here's the reality. The reality is that a lot of businesses, and I'm not talking about a handful, a lot of businesses, look at the guy in the next street and they go well he's charging X and I see he's got a new BMW on the drive at home so he's doing all right, he knows what he's at, you know what, I'll charge 10p less, not knowing that the guy in the next street is doing exactly the same thing as him with somebody else two other streets away.
Stelios: How do you change human nature, John?
John: Well, it's…
Stelios: Look, because now you've hit, you said something that is valid, like how do you even change that? Do any of these things change that? If somebody…
John: Well, I suppose, look, the current crisis and where we are at the minute is a crisis, but it's also an opportunity. People who, for example, we just talked about the fish weights and industry standard– that work was done years ago, nobody paid any attention to it because their business models, their businesses were going okay, they were getting X profit, whatever it was selling, what they were doing, what they were doing… times have changed, you know, they need to, everybody needs to look at their business. Where can I make a savings? What can I do? But it's a combination. It's, you're correct, and I completely agree with you with regard to understanding the finances doing the calculations, doing the costings, looking at your P&L, understanding a P&L, and strong financials, I completely agree with that, but there's a two, you know, it's so somebody looks somebody who's over the next four months starts to do that and then they say, Jesus, that's my margin, how do I fix that? So the poster is potentially a way, well there's a potential fix if I use that or try to adapt my business or I have my public coming in through the door that they now know that the industry standard, this is what it is, and if you want that this is what you pay, if you want something else. So it’s a combination.
Stelios: Yes, so moving on, there's two little points, well one little point and one just slightly wider point and then I want to let you go. And one point is Stormont had been suspended for many years causing economic difficulties in NI, in Northern Ireland. Now it's all concluded and back to normal, has that been helpful, or…? (Laughs) You've rolled your eyes, so I take it, not really.
John: What people need to understand is that Stormont has very limited powers.
Stelios: Ok. Less than Holyrood or more? Scotland, that is.
John: I'll have to be honest and say I’m really not…
Stelios: Ok, no worries.
John: But what they can control: business rates, water charges, what else,
now mind’s going to blank…
Stelios: Let's just say lots of infrastructure, top-end things, ok?
John: Quite little. Got a couple of levers.
Stelios: Okay.
John: So as a consequence, for example, the business rates here in Belfast would be as high as those in the centre of London.
Stelios: Wow.
John: Because in order for Stormont to raise extra capital or funding, it was one of the few vehicles for which they could.
Stelios: That's a lever that could pull.
John: So there's very little powers that…
Stelios: So in some ways, them sort of being suspended could have been helpful in some ways because I guess…
John: Oh no.
Stelios: Okay, I was thinking if it was pause then they can't rate and so on…
John: No, it just stopped other stuff.
Stelios: All right.
John: You know, for example, if there was a building project or roads or whatever it is, there would be no government there to sign it off.
Stelios: Oh, I see. Okay.
John: So whilst it has X pounds in the coffers from Westminster, how that's spent needs to be signed off and needs to be agreed. None of it, that wasn't allowed to happen. And so, yeah, from an economic point of view, not being in power was generally a very bad thing for us.
Stelios: And moving on to my wider point, and we'll finish with this. You follow me on Twitter. You engage a lot on Twitter as well. You've probably listened to this, and you probably disagree with some of my points on, let's say, VAT and stuff. What would you like to see government do? Like, let's spend the last five minutes. What would you see the government do? If you could have 10 minutes with a minister that could make anything happen, what is it you'd be telling them?
John: The big one is the VAT. And, you know, there's, I've heard the argument, you know, well, that's money that and you have and you can use and everybody cares whatever the issue that I have with that is it's a tax on hospitality especially, which creates a non-fair competitiveness in the marketplace. So someone that is paying their VAT and taxes is competing with someone that isn't.
Stelios: So just on that point then, do you think the problem is... Is it the percentage or is it the way it's enforced? Or both?
John: It's both, but clearly if it was being enforced then that wouldn't be happening, but the reality is that the resources are not there to all of a sudden that the taxman has the ability to investigate, to knock on doors, etc. Whenever you look at so many other areas, the NHS this morning, there was a big piece on school meals.
Stelios: I saw that, yeah.
John: So the government resources are stretched beyond. And this has been happening for years, so why all of a sudden then would enforcement change?
Stelios: So you're saying, but you're also sort of at the same time, if I'm playing devil's advocate, you're also strengthening their position, the government's position, because what you're saying is they're stretched thin, they've got low resources, and they can't even afford to give an increase to school meals, which is what the story was today. One pea, apparently, which is all they could give. And you think they would argue that's why we need the VAT money, like so what argument would you give the government? You've got 10 minutes for that minister. What argument could you give him to say, or her, look, here's why we need a reform, a change? What would your pitch be?
John: Well, through government policy, through government policy, we find ourselves in an industry which is in deep crisis, or what even goes for it to say, honest needs. Recently, I'm seeing, I've never seen the volume of voters.
Stelios: Which government policy in particular?
John: With government policy in general as in the national insurance…
Stelios: Okay NICs, yeah.
John: And minimum wage increases over this last three or four years. These are things these are things that rightly should be in place but the VAT is an unfair tax because it leaves good operators at a competitive disadvantage. And I'll go back to the ready-made meal sector, there is no VAT on…
Stelios: So at the risk of any listener who owns a fish and chip shop listening to this shouting at me right now, I'm going to take the opposite position, which they're used to, shall I say. So they're used to that. But if governments see it as a consumer tax, and you see it as a tax on hospitality, business, there's a massive deprecation, there's a disparity there between what the two, you know, you're diametrically opposed. They think it's a consumer tax, and it is pretty much a consumer tax, and you see it as a tax on business. Consumers just prod along.
John: It's a tax, it's a tax that hospitality can no longer bear.
Stelios: But like, for example, though…
John: We cannot put our prices… there is a ceiling of whereby we can move our prices.
Stelios: What I’m getting at is though like in their mind though, they're just gonna, unless someone can really bring it to their attention and really make it obvious why it's different for us but in their mind, what's the difference between a car dealership that has 20 percent on cars and Fish City that has 20 percent on their product? Can anybody explain that to them and say to them? I’m not defending the government here by the way, I'm just saying can anybody explain that to the government, so they get it into their thick heads?
John: I think what's, and you alluded to the fact earlier that you have requested for information from the government regarding a number of different things. It would be quite interesting to see what the policy is in place and how the country is being run and operated. Is the revenue from hospitality, from taxes, how that has decreased? And I think you would see a substantial decrease there. If we are seeing closures…
Stelios: I'm sure that information is available because on the ONS website, I'm sure, you know, if I'm looking at a blanket term like hospitality, I'm sure it would show. Hospitality's contribution to the VAT portion, just the VAT, if I'm right, of all VAT paying industries, I think was number six or number eight on the list. I can't remember which one exactly. So they would argue that hospitality isn't overly burdened if we then look at it from a business point of view. And again, you rolled your eyes. I'm not changing your mind. I'm not trying to change your mind. I'm just trying to like, because I do think there is a massive disconnect between the industry, all the industry saying it is a burden. And I can see that because I know fish and chip shop owners. I understand where you're coming from. And then.
John: It's not just fish and chips.
Stelios: No, no, all of hospitality, sorry. No, no, all of them. Yeah, all of hospitality, to clarify. And I know people in hospitality too. But the argument would be, is that let's say they drop VAT tomorrow on anything that's VAT rated, anything. The car dealership will drop it for the most part because they want to sell more cars. Would hospitality, do you think?
John: No, I don't think so.
Stelios: So then would that stimulate the economy then?
John: Yes.
Stelios: How?
John: And the reason why I don't think that hospitality would drop is that they can't. It's got squeezed to such an extent that there just isn't room. It's putting the prices up.
Stelios: Again, I'm just trying to think wider, and I'm not arguing like this isn't my position. I'm just trying to argue a position. Would that be seen from a taxpayer that cares if there is one? Well, I guess everyone cares about paying tax, you know, but would that be seen from a taxpayer? Let's say a knowledgeable taxpayer. Would that be seen as a tax break for businesses that aren't doing very well?
John: I would say you would have to look at it as a sector as opposed to an individual business. And the argument is that the sector is under grave pressure. The tax, what also, and which isn't talked about, but hospitality in general, there's been a lot of change happening, which the public haven't seen or are unaware of. For example, that hospitality at one point, and I'm talking about probably maybe more on restaurants, I'm not in the business long enough, the fish and chip business to come up with that, well, but my knowledge on restaurants. So I would say that that sort of public-private relationship is part of the problem. That there would have been people who would have found themselves working in restaurants that perhaps for whatever reason and numerous reasons that didn't find themselves in a teacher's job or architect or some other profession, and the ability to earn a good salary could be found in hospitality. However that salary required perhaps long working hours, so it wouldn’t have been unusual for people in hospitality to do 60, 70 hours a week on that salary. What has changed, that's no longer the case. So if for example a restaurant or a business employed X people and they were salaried, and then they, what happened, they reduced those working hours to 40, 45 hours a week but what did happen was that those same salary people remained on the same salary but on the reduced number of hours worked per week then that was there was a requirement then for businesses to employ an extra two, three, whatever number of people, to cover the hours. So that's been a that's been a huge additional cost in there through, in my view, that there's been a correction in the industry, and what has happened should have happened, but you start to lay up put on all the other layers the energy costs etc. we can't in hospitality look at right, you know, what we're doing a production run so we'll do that at the most economical time we'll do that between 12 o'clock and four o'clock in the morning. We're operating at peak energy use, the public are, because we've talked about, you know, the sector is more luxury now that people are more demanding of what they're getting so you have to provide a better service and that's become more difficult staffing.
Stelios: There's lots of valid points there loads like so you know there's the podcast in itself that is, and, you know, a lot of valid points I think, look, one of the fairest things if they could get a collective together to go to government and basically say look all of out of home food is out of home food so is fish and chips there shouldn't be a difference on the VAT rate however if you go and tax all the bakeries, all the cold sandwich shops, everything, go and put apply VAT to those purchases too that surely has to be the most logical option and then say you can share the load, make it 10 percent, 9 percent, whatever you want to make it, because the load is shared, you know.
John: Listen, I completely agree and as I said there, we talked about the food, you know, the ready meal sector, I mean, there's no VAT on that. How is that not a luxury?
Stelios: And that's a wrap with John Lavery. What stood out to you? Share your thoughts on the Ceres podcast discussion group on Facebook and keep the conversation rolling. Remember, the Ceres calculators turn raw numbers into crystal clear costs and rock-solid profit margins in seconds. Test drive them for free at ceres.shop forward slash calculators and watch your profits crisp up. At Ceres, we're here to help your business thrive with smart products, sharp insight and a community that's got your back. If you've got a topic or a challenge you'd like us to tackle, drop me a message. Thank you for listening to me and John in this episode and I'll catch you in the next one.